The 2025 NBA draft lottery completed last month, with the Dallas Mavericks obtaining the first overall pick. This leads NBA fans with valid concern that the NBA draft is rigged.
The Mavericks had a rough season after trading superstar player Luka Doncic to the Lakers in exchange for Anthony Davis and Max Christie. This deal sparked rumors around the NBA, suggesting that the league was rigged and wanted to move Doncic to a bigger market, as it seemed that there would be no way the Mavericks could go through with the trade willingly. Davis only played a handful of games from February to April, but came back for the play-in tournament, a final chance for the Mavericks to sneak into the playoffs. They came up short, partially because they were missing superstar point guard Kyrie Irving, who tore his ACL shortly after the trade, along with injuries to key role players like Derrick Lively ll and Daniel Gafford.
All hope seemed lost for the Mavericks, and then lottery day came. One by one the order of picks were announced, and the Mavericks were yet to be called. It was then announced that they had leaped into the top four picks, along with the Hornets, Spurs and 76ers. Dallas fans rejoiced as this draft class was loaded, meaning that a top four pick was a surefire stud. Little did they know how much better their luck could get. Going into the draft, the Mavericks had a measly 1.8% chance of landing the number one pick. Even after jumping into the top four, they still only had a 6% chance of landing number one — and yet they got it. There were plenty more struggling teams in need of the pick; one example being the Wizards, who acquired the sixth pick. The Wizards have not had much going for them ever since Bradley Beal was in town. Beal was an All-Star shooting guard who was traded to the Phoenix Suns after signing an insane 250 million dollar contract. They have been one of the worst teams in the league since, finishing the season with the worst record in the league.
It is consensus that the 2025 NBA draft class is loaded with studs including Rutgers freshmen Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey, Baylor’s V.J. Edgecomb, and Texas’ Tre Johnson. While these players are considered great prospects, there is still a huge skill gap between them and projected number one overall pick in Duke’s Cooper Flagg.
Many NBA fans were furious with the outcome; the Mavericks were in the NBA Finals the year before and were certainly not a bad enough team to deserve the first overall pick, despite making a terrible trade earlier that season. This raised the question — is the draft lottery legit?
It is extremely suspicious that the lottery has been done behind closed doors, with little evidence of any legitimacy in the process. There are certainly good arguments for the NBA to want to send a “generational” talent like Flagg to a big market team like Dallas, rather than sending him to a smaller, more irrelevant team like Charlotte or Utah.
Looking back historically, there have been some crazy lottery results, with some of the most famous being the Cavaliers landing Kyrie Irving in 2011, where they only had a 2.8 percent chance to land him after losing LeBron James to Miami. Or when the Chicago Bulls landed Derrick Rose, despite only having a 1.7 percent chance of landing number one.
There is substantial evidence that says the NBA draft and lottery are rigged, and I believe that the NBA has every reason to rig it. Sending a star young player to a big market is a lot more impactful in basketball than in other sports. For example, in the NFL, which has no draft lottery, the season after a team picked first overall, that team has only made the playoffs nine times, signifying that one player truly does not make much of an impact. The NBA more than doubles this statistic, with 20 teams going from number one pick to the playoffs. Giving the worst team in the NBA a superstar can make them a good team, and if that team is in a big market, that means more money for the league.
