Come late October, the Philadelphia Phillies will be World Series champions (in hindsight maybe not, but I would like to present my argument anyway). No, I do not suffer from the chronic East Coast bias that plagues the media. No, I am not from Philadelphia. And no, I am not a Yankees, Red Sox or Brewers hater. In fact, if someone were to call me a hater, I would probably be called a Phillies hater. I strongly dislike these National League Yankees and their over-sized payroll more than I do any other team. However, even I must admit that the Phillies are the strongest, most talented team in Major League Baseball (MLB) this year, and in the postseason, it will show (or so I thought).
Joining Philadelphia in the playoffs this year are the Atlanta Braves, Milwaukee Brewers, Arizona Diamondbacks, New York Yankees, Detroit Tigers, Texas Rangers, and Boston Red Sox. None of these squads, however, have the right combination of offense and pitching to win the World Series.
The Phillies made waves by acquiring one of the biggest names in the game, Cliff Lee, in Dec. 2010, and instantly became the National League front-runners. Although several other teams, including the Yankees and Rangers, were interested in the crafty left-handed ace, Philadelphia ultimately signed Lee to a five year contract with $120 million guaranteed. Lee’s return to the Phillies, his 2009 squad, bolstered a pitching rotation already considered one of the strongest in the MLB.
There is a common saying in sports that offense wins games and defense wins championships. In baseball, the saying should be that offense wins games and pitching wins championships. Just look at the 2010 San Francisco Giants, led by Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain. The 2011 Phillies, with a team earned run average (ERA) hovering right around 3.00, have the best pitching in the MLB, which is the easy explanation for why they have the best record in the league [earning home field advantage] and will find success this October.
The Phillies have five pitchers who have made at least 20 starts this year. Of those five, four [Lee, Roy Oswalt, Cole Hamels, and Vance Worley] have an ERA below three, which is outstanding. Compare that statistic to the 2010 Giants, who did not have a single starting pitcher with a sub-3.00 ERA (to call his own). Since nobody can score against the Phillies and their aces, it makes them very tough to beat.
The Phillies are in no way offensive pushovers either. With Ryan Howard and Chase Utley in the middle, the Phillies lineup still has the capability to pack enough of a punch to carry the team through the playoffs. Howard leads the squad with over 30 home runs and 110 runs batted in (RBIs). The Phillies also acquired Houston Astros slugger Hunter Pence in the middle of the season, and his arrival has provided an additional spark for the Phillies offense.
To be sure Milwaukee, Philadelphia’s likely National League Championship Series opponent, has a more potent offense behind the big bats of Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun. Both sluggers have hit over 30 home runs and driven in more that 100 runs this season, and have on base plus slugging (OPS) numbers nearing 1.000. The Brewers lineup also boasts speedy center fielder Nyjer Morgan, a talented and outspoken lead off hitter from the Bay Area. Unlike their Phillies counterparts, however, the Brewers lack the elite pitching to go all the way. They have a team ERA of over 3.50, a half run more than the Phillies, and lack a starter with an ERA under 3.00 (Shaun Marcum is just under 3.50). Winning games in the playoffs ultimately comes down to great pitching, and the Brewers lack enough of that to be relevant past their first series.
Some people will probably argue that the Yankees have the offense to take on the Phillies’ pitching. While I agree that the Yanks have a very potent offense and will reach at least the American League Championship Series (ALCS), the fact remains that besides CC Sabathia and Ivan Nova, the Yankees rotation has been mediocre throughout the season. In a [potential] showdown with the Phillies, the Yankees, like the Brewers, will hardly stand a chance against the likes of Halladay, Lee, and Hamels.
Of course, I have not even mentioned the main reason that the Phillies will win the World Series this year, which is of course that the Giants will not be joining them in the playoffs. Without certified Halladay assassin Cody Ross hitting home runs or Brian Wilson protecting leads against the beard-fearing Phillies, there is no team in the postseason that can compete with them.
The beauty of the playoffs, however, is that the best team does not always win. Any of the eight contenders could hit a hot streak and cruise all the way to a title. And that of course, as they say, is why they play the games and why everyone should be sure to tune in this October to watch it all play out. And remember, go Giants!
