The end of every sports season brings with it a heightened sense of urgency for nearly all teams involved, which is why it is often called a “race to the finish.” Whether they are competing for first place, a berth in the playoffs or to avoid the embarrassment of relegation to a lower league, contenders usually feel extra motivation to play well and win games at the end of the year. This part of the season is sometimes even given a unique name like baseball’s “pennant race.”
This year in the National Football League (NFL), there will be two such races going on as the end of the year approaches. The first of these is obvious: The standard frenzied divisional finishes, where teams compete for playoff spots in order to have a shot at winning the Super Bowl. The other, however, will involve entirely different teams: Those who have no mathematical shot at making the playoffs and are not even close to possessing a winning record. While these teams would never lose on purpose, the object of their competition is to have the worst record in the NFL.
So what are these teams competing for, if a Super Bowl is out of the question?
The answer lies right down the road at Stanford University.
Andrew Luck, the quarterback for the Stanford football team, was widely regarded as the consensus number one pick in the 2011 NFL draft, but elected to return to school for his redshirt junior year after leading the Cardinal to a 12-1 season culminating with a victory over Virginia Tech in the 2011 Orange Bowl. This year, Luck is expected to leave Stanford and enter the draft, and is again projected as the top overall pick. The thought of drafting Luck gives bad teams hope for the future, and is why many fans may be satisfied with their team’s losing efforts this season.
Luck is as close to a sure thing as there can be in the draft and, in addition to numerous John Elway comparisons, has been called the most NFL ready prospect since Peyton Manning.
As ESPN’s Brock Huard observes, “Andrew Luck has the same prototypical size, the same durable build and the same refined, over-the-top delivery that equal Peyton’s as a draft-day prospect.”
Manning, who was drafted first overall in 1998, has accumulated several accolades as quarterback of the Indianapolis Colts, including four MVP awards, a Super Bowl championship in 2006, and Fox Sports’ NFL Player of the Decade award in 2009. It is no surprise, then, that teams would be excited to have the chance to draft Luck, even if it means one bad year in the process.
Naturally, this is a polarizing issue that presents a bit of a dilemma for die-hard fans of teams like the Miami Dolphins. They hate seeing their team lose, but at the same time cannot help but wonder what it would be like to have Luck on their side in the future. The Twitter account SuckForLuck, a reference to the popular name for the Luck saga (specifically the strategy of losing to be able to draft him), is run by a disgruntled Dolphins fan who has strong opinions regarding the whole situation.
“I do not consider myself a bad fan if I support #SuckForLuck,” he tweeted. “I’ll take one bad year for 10 great ones.”
While this view is certainly not uncommon, other fans would be appalled to hear anyone rooting against their own team, regardless of possible future benefits. This includes Paly student Kenny Jones (‘13), a lifelong Dolphins fan.
“When it comes to ‘Suck for Luck,’ you never want to see your team tank,” Jones said. “That’s just embarrassing.”
He does concede, however, that even though he would never root for it, the pain of an 0-16 season might be validated by several strong years down the road. Jones is not completely sold on Luck, however.
“I’m not ready to anoint him the next Joe Montana or Dan Marino,” he said.
There appear to be several teams off to promising starts in this year’s race for Luck. These include the Dolphins (2-7), Colts (0-10), Denver Broncos (4-5), St. Louis Rams (2-7), Arizona Cardinals (3-6), Carolina Panthers (2-7) and Minnesota Vikings (2-7). Some of these teams have already invested in their future quarterbacks, but others have a clear need at the position.
The Rams and Panthers have had the first overall picks in the last two drafts, and since each selected a quarterback, neither team would have a need for Luck’s services. The Rams chose Sam Bradford in 2010 and the Panthers chose Cam Newton in 2011. Both have showed promise so far, and their teams are counting on them to develop into star players.
Likewise, the Vikings believe they have found their future quarterback in Christian Ponder, who has been solid as a starter after a lack of production from veteran Donovan McNabb caused coach Leslie Frazier to bench him. Even so, finishing in last place and gaining the first overall pick could pay huge dividends for any of these teams because they could essentially open up the bidding for the right to draft Luck. Teams in desperate need of a quarterback could conceivably fork over up to three first round picks in exchange, and the Rams, Panthers or Vikings could acquire several top prospects to fill their areas of need.
The Dolphins, Cardinals and Broncos, on the other hand, have unclear quarterback situations and given the chance would almost certainly snag Luck with the first overall pick. Chad Henne, the Dolphins’ starting quarterback this year was generally unimpressive and suffered a season-ending injury in the fourth game of the season. When the Cardinals acquired Kevin Kolb from the Eagles in the off-season, he was supposed to be the team’s future quarterback, but he too has struggled.
And although it is officially “Tebow Time” in Denver, it is unclear how effective Tim Tebow will be as an NFL quarterback, and the team has been struggling. Luck would still be a good choice for the organization if they found themselves in a position to draft him, especially with Elway, the ex-Stanford quarterback, working as the team’s executive vice president of football operations. “An Elway-Luck union in Denver would be a heck of a story,” ESPN’s Bill Williamson wrote.
If the Colts, generally playoff contenders, were to end up with the first overall pick, that would turn into quite a tough decision for the team. Manning has been the face of the franchise since 1998, but after undergoing neck surgery has not played in 2011. Clearly, the team has struggled in his absence, amassing the worst record in the league. This is the latest in a series of health issues that have plagued Manning recently, and it is likely that he will only be able to continue playing for a few more seasons. This would leave the Colts with a dilemma: Does it make more sense to trade the first pick and hope that Manning has several productive years left in his career, or draft Luck and set the team up for potential long-term success that could outlast Manning’s career?
If the Colts continue their current losing ways and end up with the first pick in the draft, they ought to consider taking a page out of the Green Bay Packers’ playbook and drafting Luck. After all, who would make a better mentor for him than Peyton Manning? Assuming Manning is able to play for three to four more years, Luck could sit on the sidelines and learn from the man who is arguably the best game manager in the NFL today. Then, whenever Manning decides to hang up the cleats and call it a career, Luck will be fully prepared to take his place as an elite quarterback.
The Packers employed this strategy with current quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who sat behind the ageless Brett Favre for several years, learning the game and waiting. Finally, in 2008, Rodgers’ time came, and over the last few years he has developed into one of the top-five quarterbacks in the game, leading the Packers to last year’s Super Bowl championship and a very hot start this year.
Compare that to Alex Smith of the 49ers, who was chosen ahead of Rodgers in the 2005 NFL draft. Instead of having that learning period, however, Smith was immediately inserted into the starting lineup and has never lived up to his potential. Jim Harbaugh has helped restore a little bit of hope to Smith’s once-promising career, but even so, the difference between Smith and Rodgers is striking.
Although some of this variance may be attributed to things like talent and work ethic, it is hard to imagine that the teams who drafted them did not have some effect on their development. Therefore, getting picked by and playing for a team like the Colts might end up being a blessing for Luck, since even a prospect as polished as he is can still greatly benefit from some time to learn how to play in the NFL.
Of course, there is always the chance that Luck could become a bust. His name could go down in infamy with those of Ryan Leaf and Jamarcus Russell, both highly touted quarterbacks coming out of college who failed to live up to their high draft selections and have received the dreaded “bust” label. Luck is so polished and pro-ready, however, that the chances of him being a bust seem fairly miniscule at this point.
Just look at Elway, the last Stanford quarterback selected number one overall, who is now in the Hall of Fame. Huard mentions that “Luck possesses the athleticism and strength in his legs to improvise, extend plays and convert third-down scampers into first downs, something more reminiscent of John Elway than Manning.” Or Jim Plunkett, the Stanford quarterback and Heisman trophy winner selected first overall in 1971, who is not in the Hall of Fame, but won two Super Bowls with the Oakland Raiders in part of his productive professional career. Even if Luck turns out to be more Plunkett than Elway, being compared to a Super Bowl winning quarterback is not too bad.
There is still one small issue that could wreck the entire Suck for Luck scenario, however, which is the fact that Luck is only a junior, eligibility-wise. He redshirted his freshman year at Stanford, so he still has one more year of eligibility left and could conceivably return for another year. He already shocked the world by returning this season, and while it would certainly be surprising, it it not impossible that he would do it again.
And if that were to happen, for teams at the bottom of the standings hoping to suck for Luck, it would just suck to suck.
